In September of 2021, Dr. David Robinson, New Jersey State Climatologist and Distinguished Professor at the Department of Geography for Rutgers University, observed Hurricane Ida produce one of the largest floods in New Jersey.
“This was an exceptional event across central and northeastern New Jersey. I mean it just, it was off the charts. I mean it had return periods of 100, 500, 1000 years in terms of hourly, three hourly, six hour rainfall totals,” says Dr. Robinson.
Flooding from Ida caused the deaths of 30 people in New Jersey and wiped out many homes and businesses.
According to New Jersey’s Department of Environmental Protection, Ida is just a step in a long term trajectory. The DEP estimates that New Jersey’s precipitation rates will increase 4% to 11% by 2050.
People in New Jersey can expect the severe weather to get more frequent, as there is an increased amount of energy into the atmosphere and in the ocean because the weather is warming.
The warmer the coast gets, the higher the potential is for stronger hurricanes that move slower as they travel across land. These hurricanes in turn result in larger amounts of rainfall and flooding.
“With climate change, of course the foundation on which day to day weather occurs is being raised. Its warming, its changing circulation patterns and ocean temperatures. So, you are still having day to day weather but it’s on a different foundation because that foundation is changed,” Dr. Robinson says.
Climate change is the long term variation in temperature and weather patterns due to harmful human practices that emit large amounts of greenhouse gasses and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. The increased amount of absorbed heat being emitted into the atmosphere by these gasses has caused increased and rising temperatures globally and shifted weather patterns over time.
New Jersey experiences all four seasons and has witnessed a variety of weather but usually never encounters the worst of the worst. Now the seasonal changes are unpredictable and temperatures fluctuate widely.
“First of all January was actually below the long term normal, it was colder than the last 30 year average. But, December was much warmer than the 30 degree average,” Dr. Robinson says.
Seasonal activities that were once common, such as skating on frozen lakes in winter, and fishing and swimming in those lakes in summer have already seen major disruptions in New Jersey.
According to a 2019 article in the New York Times that looked at how Lake Hoptacong in Sussex county had to be closed for summer swimming and boating due to severe algae blooms, “The biggest challenge is in places with older sewer and stormwater systems that have been overwhelmed by fast-moving storms…The Environmental Protection Agency has put the cost of upgrading New Jersey’s stormwater system at $16 billion.”
Joseph Martucci, meteorologist for the Press of Atlantic City, says “ In a climate changing world, [you see] these extremes, specifically the snowier and hotter extremes…Climate change tips the scale for some of these more extreme events to happen.” Martucci adds, “Climate change is a real problem that should have been addressed decades ago. And needs to be addressed more importantly now for the future.”
Robinson says, “The willpower of the public to go green or cleaner is far enough down the road that we are going to have to deal with a change in climate for decades to come.”
